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Week 4: Northwestern

Nickname:  Wildcats

Head Coach:  Randy Walker (32-42 in 7 seasons at Northwestern)

Record:  2-1 (0-0 in the Big Ten)

Series Record:  Penn State leads 7-3 (Northwestern has won the last 2)

Surprising Statistic:  Penn State is 5-7 in their Big Ten opener since joining the conference in 1993.  The Lions have lost their last 5 openers, last defeating Indiana in 1999.  This is the first time that the Lions and Wildcats will square off to open the Big Ten portion of the season. 

Watch Out For:

·        Brett Basanez (QB):  The senior has had a very good start to the 2005 season, completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 797 yards.  He's thrown four touchdowns and run for another without throwing an interception.

·        Tyrell Sutton (RB):  The freshman running back has gained 416 yards and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry through the first 3 games.  Sutton has scored 6 touchdowns on the season and was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week just 2 weeks ago after he ran for 214 yards and 4 TD's against Northern Illinois.

Intriguing Matchup:

·        Northwestern's red zone offense vs. Penn State's red zone defense:  I look for the Nittany Lions to play a relatively soft defensive scheme and give the Wildcats completions and yards in small chunks in order to prevent giving up the big play.  As a result, don't be surprised to see Northwestern move the ball up and down the field and control the clock.  Where you're going to want to pay particular attention is when the Wildcats crack Penn State's 30 yard line.  Once this happens, I look for Tom Bradley to become more aggressive with his linebackers in bringing pressure and move his defensive backs closer to the receivers at the line of scrimmage.  Where Penn State has to be careful is not neglecting to account for Tyrell Sutton on the ground.  The freshman has become an added weapon to an already potent Wildcat offense.  If the Lions can hold Northwestern to field goal attempts and keep them out of the end zone, they should walk out of Evanston with  their 4^th victory of the season.

Keys for Penn State to pick up the W:

·        Be sure tacklers: As I surmised above, I believe Northwestern will attack the Penn State defense with a short passing game.  The only way the Wildcats can turn short passes into long gains is by breaking some tackles.  The Lions need to play fundamentally sound defensive football and wrap up the receiver immediately after catching the football.  Look for more of the 'nickel' and 'penny' schemes that Penn State ran last weekend against Central Michigan.

·        Put up points or control the ball: In an ideal world, I'd love to see both.  So far this season, the Penn State offense has had a penchant for scoring quickly.  The average time of possession during a Penn State scoring drive has been just 1:46.  While that can tire out the defense a little faster, it helps them to know that points are being put on the board.  While I'm not going to turn my nose up at a 54 yard touchdown pass following a turnover, I would like to see the Penn State offense occasionally hammer out a 4 or 5 minute drive to rest their defense and keep Brett Basanez off the field.

·        Take care of the football:  One statistical category in which the Lions can vastly improve is that known as Turnover Margin.  This category reflects the number of turnovers a team causes vs. the number of turnovers it gives up.  Penn State is currently tied for ninth in the conference with a number of -1.0.  That means that the offense is averaging one more turnover than the defense is creating per game.  This is even more disturbing when you look to see that the Penn State Defense has forced 6 turnovers in the first 3 games.  That means that the offense and special teams have given up 9. Fortunately for those units, opponents have yet to take advantage of their miscues, scoring after just 2 of PSU's 9 turnovers.  If this trend continues, that number will likely rise due to the fact that the Lions will be facing some much stiffer competition in the coming weeks.

JoePa's Take:

·        E.Z. Smith will play this week but will need to earn his playing time in practice by beating out those ahead of him on the depth chart.

·        Joe is anxious to see how his team responds this week on the road.  He said he really likes this team and he wants to prove to other teams in the Big Ten that Penn State can still play with them.

·        The staff is looking at who will return punts this week.  Joe feels that Calvin Lowery has done a nice job thus far.

·        Injury update – DT Jim Shaw will be back in action this weekend and Levi Brown, who just had his wisdom teeth pulled, should be ready to go as well

Bet You Didn't Know:  We all know that QB Michael Robinson has been very productive in the past 2 games.  However, I'm not sure Penn State fans realize just how good he's been.  So far this season, he has completed almost 62 percent of his passes for 584 yards and 6 touchdowns.  That gives him a pass efficiency rating of 176.1, ranking him third in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation.

 

My Prediction:  Penn State 31, Northwestern 20

 

For a full recap of Joe Paterno's weekly press conference, check out gopsusports.com.

 

For more information regarding the Northwestern Wildcats, head to nusports.collegesports.com.

Until next time, S-T-A-T-E, Go State!!!

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